Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,857$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(643 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,128.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 158.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,128.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $136$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(36.1 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(112.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $855$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,997$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(6.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,301.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(94,301.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,697$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,498.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,498.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $73,300$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,117$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,615.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,615.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{243.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(243.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,393$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,214.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,214.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(325.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $144$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,665$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,843.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,843.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $613$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(235 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{597.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(597.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $511$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,847$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(890 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(111.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,813.9}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,813.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(5.68 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(123.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $66,026$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,753.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(60,753.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,821$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,607.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,607.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,767$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $301,020$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(7.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,182.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(286,182.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $45,837$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,684.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,684.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $253,749$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $246,118$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,337.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237,337.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,107$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,274.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,274.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,565$ on 2020-07-26
